政治不稳定直接冲击经济预期。企业家的决策依赖对未来的判断：投资建厂，是因为相信几年后能收回成本；雇佣员工、签订合同，也是基于规则稳定的预期。但如果政府频繁更替、政策朝令夕改、法律难以预期，企业家自然选择观望。
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